The Democrats Taking On BeetleJuice Boebert Better Get Their Shit Together and Beat This Loser.
And how we’ll decide who to back
Lauren Boebert’s greatest advantage has never been popularity. It has been division. She survives not because she persuades a majority, but because her opposition fractures, hesitates, and waits too long to consolidate.
That makes the Democratic primary in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District the most consequential contest of the 2026 cycle. Four Democrats are competing not just to be the nominee, but to define the theory of how Boebert is finally beaten.
At American Muckrakers, we are watching closely. In March, we will endorse one Democratic candidate and actively help them raise the resources needed to compete. This essay explains the field, the stakes, and how we’re thinking about that decision.
We will analyze Libertarian, unaffiliated, and GOP challengers in the next installment. This one is about the Democrats.
Trisha Calvarese
The Rematch Candidate
Calvarese is the most familiar name in the field. She was the Democratic nominee last cycle, has already run a district-wide campaign, and understands the mechanics of operating in CO-04.
Her argument is disciplined and clear: Boebert is distracted, unserious, and focused on national spectacle. Calvarese presents herself as present, prepared, and focused on constituent work.
Why that matters:
She does not need an introduction. She has a donor list, a compliance structure, and practical experience navigating this large, rural district.
The risk:
Voters who declined to fire Boebert once will need a compelling reason to do so now. Experience stabilizes support, but it does not automatically expand it. In a district this red, winning requires persuasion beyond the base.
Calvarese’s strength is readiness. Her challenge is expansion.
We didn’t endorse her last time because we didn’t see any risks being taken to win. She just sailed through the election like she was out for a sunday stroll. Now, that isn’t completely fair, she worked very hard on the campaign and did almost everything right as a first time candidate. But, we didn’t see any urgency from her, any anger or disgust at her opponent, and not break-away moment.
Hopefully, Ms. Calverese has learned the lesson and understands that a challenger MUST CHALLENGE the incumbent. Challengers must draw distinctions with their opponent, and when the connects with key voters, ram it home every day. She never did this, in our opinion.
OH, and she was upset that we endorsed John Padora late last time around and now won’t respond to invites to our podcast, MUCK YOU!, and refused any help in the general election. This seems a bit shortsighted. We did help Adam Frisch with radio, billboards, social media ads, and general muckraking against Boebert in his 2022 campaign against Boebert. Adam came within 536 votes of beating her. (and we also helped fire face-humper Madison Cawthorn… but we talk too much about that…”)
But her attitude tracks with her performance last time: a traditional Democrat that could win, but would rather be right, than win.
Eileen Laubacher
The Gravitas Candidate
Laubacher brings something rare to this race: unquestioned seriousness. A retired Navy rear admiral with senior national security experience, she represents a sharp contrast to Boebert’s chaos-driven brand.
Her theory is subtle but powerful: competence itself is the message.
Why that matters:
There are voters in CO-04 who may never embrace progressive policy, but who are exhausted by embarrassment politics. Laubacher’s résumé signals steadiness, leadership, and credibility without shouting.
Early fundraising signals suggest donors see her as a plausible general-election challenger, not just a primary entrant.
The risk:
Résumé alone is not enough. Military leadership must be translated into rural cultural fluency and retail politics. If her biography floats above the district instead of rooting into it, it will not carry her across the line.
She does have a world-class consultant working for her, who also helped Col Moe Davis before he dropped out. That matters in tight race. I got to know her consultant and found him to be dead on and focused on winning, not being a stupid campaign that is afraid to challenge a challenger.
Also, when she announced she didn’t even live in the district. That may have changed.
Laubacher’s candidacy asks a real question: is CO-04 ready to replace notoriety with stature and is she ready to pound on Boebert or just nip at the edges?
John Padora Jr.
The Working-Class Rebuilder
Padora runs in a lane Democrats often praise and rarely occupy convincingly. His message centers on rural neglect, economic frustration, and the idea that grievance politics thrive where representation has failed.
He frames Boebert not as an aberration, but as a symptom.
Why that matters:
This approach directly challenges Boebert’s “outsider” identity and speaks to voters who feel culturally ignored rather than ideologically extreme.
We like John. He has a past with addiction, that he talks about openly and without denying it. That is genuine and means a lot to rural voters. We endorsed him last time, very late in the primary, and that probably didn’t help him at all.
Also, John was fast to accept our invite to join MUCK YOU! podcast and was open, didn’t provide boring canned answers, was funny and self-deprecating, and very candid about his past addiction issues and recovery. We still like John.
The risk:
Scale. Name recognition and fundraising lag behind the top tier. Message clarity does not guarantee oxygen, especially in a crowded primary.
Padora’s problem is not authenticity. It is amplification and money.
Jenna Preston
The Stability Candidate
Preston, a clinical psychologist who has worked with military-connected families, offers the calmest contrast in the race. Her emphasis is mental health, family stability, and seriousness of purpose.
This is a values-first candidacy in a noise-driven environment.
Why that matters:
There is a constituency hungry for representation without constant conflict. Preston speaks credibly about issues people live with, even if they do not dominate cable news.
The risk:
Quiet competence is easy to overlook. Without rapid growth in visibility and resources, strong messengers disappear before voters ever encounter them.
Preston represents the anti-chaos option. Whether that can break through in CO-04 is an open question.
How American Muckrakers Is Thinking About an Endorsement
We will endorse one Democratic candidate in March and help them raise real money. Not symbolic money. Competing money.
Our criteria are straightforward:
Ability to consolidate the Democratic base quickly
Credibility with persuadable independents and soft Republicans
Demonstrated fundraising potential
A message that survives opposition research and national scrutiny
Readiness to run a hard, disciplined race
Based on what we see today, the candidate who best meets those criteria is:
Our current lean: Eileen Laubacher
That is not a final decision. But her combination of gravitas, fundraising potential, and cross-partisan credibility gives her the clearest general-election theory in a district that punishes ideological excess and rewards seriousness.
Calvarese remains the most operationally prepared. Padora and Preston bring important values and perspectives that deserve to be part of the coalition. But if the goal is to actually beat Lauren Boebert, not just run a respectable race, Laubacher currently presents the strongest consolidation case.
Again: this is a lean, not an endorsement. That comes in March.
Substack Poll: Who Should We Endorse?
(Names are in alpha order, one vote please, poll closes before our March 15th endorsement.)
What Comes Next
This essay focused exclusively on the Democratic field, because that is where the real decision will be made.
In the next installment, we will analyze the Libertarian, unaffiliated, and Republican challengers, including which ones pose real structural risk, which act as potential spoilers, and which exist largely on paper.
Lauren Boebert does not win because she is strong. She wins because her opposition fails to unify.
That mistake does not need to be repeated. Your thoughts on this race?
David B. Wheeler is President and Co-Founder of American Muckrakers and a candidate for Clerk of Superior Court in Mitchell County, North Carolina.
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