Our DatumSignals.com model has North Carolina at Cooper 54, Whatley 46 as of this week. Not the probability of the vote share, the probability of winning the seat. That makes NC the tightest marquee Senate race in the country, and one of a handful that will decide who controls the chamber in 2027.
Read the full forecast here: DatumSignals: NC Senate 2026
Why it’s this close
The model sees three forces pulling in different directions. North Carolina’s structural lean actually favors Democrats by about three points before anything else is considered. It’s an open seat, with Thom Tillis walking away rather than defending it, which makes everything more volatile. The national midterm environment is shifting toward Democrats. But the state’s own public mood is moving the other way, toward Republicans, and that’s what keeps Whatley in this race.
The polls tell the same story. Roy Cooper led by double digits in the spring. A Public Policy Polling survey this month had it at four. Whatley raised $5 million from March to June; Cooper raised $14.8 million. Money isn’t destiny, but attention is, and this race is about to get all of it.
The record Whatley is running from
Michael Whatley is running as the law-and-order candidate. His record says otherwise.
As chairman of the North Carolina Republican Party, Whatley appointed Harvey West to the party’s rulemaking committee, multiple times. West is a registered sex offender who served six years in prison for crimes against children. West himself says party leadership knew about his record “from day one.” Whatley has refused to answer questions about it.
Just this month, a different man, a pastor who is a twice-imprisoned registered sex offender, delivered the opening prayer at a Whatley campaign rally.
And this spring, Whatley flew to Chicago to raise campaign cash alongside Rod Blagojevich, a convicted felon who spent eight years in federal prison for trying to sell a Senate seat.
That’s not one lapse. That’s a pattern. And “tough on crime” doesn’t survive contact with it.
So we made a radio ad. Two, actually.
We put the record on tape, in English and in Spanish, and we’re raising $5,000 to put it on radio stations across North Carolina before Election Day. Radio still reaches the voters the campaigns forget: rural counties, drive time, Spanish-language stations from Charlotte to the coast.
Listen to the English spot:
Escucha el anuncio en español:
Every claim in both spots is sourced to ABC News, NC Newsline, the Daily Beast, and C-SPAN. We don’t fabricate. We don’t need to.
Put it on the air
$25 buys airtime. $100 keeps the spot running all week on a rural station.
DONATE: Put this ad on North Carolina radio →
We fired Madison “Face-Humper” Cawthorn and Mark “Nude Africa” Robinson in this state. You did that, with us. Let’s finish the job.
— David B. Wheeler President, American Muckrakers PAC II americanmuckrakers.com · muckrakers.today
About the Author
David B. Wheeler is the president and co-founder of American Muckrakers, the Western North Carolina accountability organization best known for helping end Madison Cawthorn’s congressional career in 2022, the rare instance in modern politics of a sitting incumbent losing his own primary because somebody bothered to do the homework. Since then, American Muckrakers has turned its attention to Lauren Boebert, Ken Paxton, and a growing roster of politicians who confuse public office with a personal ATM. He publishes accountability journalism at Muckrakers.Today.
Wheeler co-hosts the MUCK YOU! podcast with Col. Moe Davis, the retired Air Force colonel and former chief prosecutor at Guantanamo Bay. He is the author of Color the Crooks, Case File #001: Lauren Boebert, the coloring book James Carville endorsed with the words “She earned every damn page. Buy it.” *He is also the founder of VoteROI.com, a political data company built on 86.9 million FEC records that helps donors figure out where their money actually goes, which, as this essay makes clear, is a question more people should be asking.
Before all that, Wheeler spent three decades in politics, elections, and event production in more than 50 countries on all seven continents. Along the way he lowered the Mississippi River, produced the first professional sports event ever held in Moscow, and produced the first marathon ever run on Antarctica. His political education started early: Page for the Iowa House of Representatives, intern in the United States Senate, and National Committeeman for Iowa on the Young Democrats of America national committee. David was the lead advance guy for then Senator Obama in Iowa City, Iowa, in October of 2006, and then again during his presidential announcement in Waterloo, Iowa, in February 2007. And, he has some good stories from both experiences.
An Iowa native and proud Hawkeye, Wheeler is a father of three and lives in the mountains of Western North Carolina, in the district Chuck Edwards is currently failing. He believes sunlight is the best disinfectant, filings don’t lie, and the loudest guy in the room is usually the one with the most to hide.
And, Beetlejuice Boebert claimed she was going to sue him. She never did, so David sued her in Federal Court in Denver and partially won.
Paid for by American Muckrakers PAC II (americanmuckrakers.com). Not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee. Donations made to American Muckrakers, Inc. are not deductible for federal or state tax purposes.
This publication is First Amendment protected speech and commentary on matters of public concern. All individuals referenced are presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty in a court of law. No portion of this publication may be used for commercial purposes without the written consent of American Muckrakers PAC, Inc. and David B. Wheeler.