Our DatumSignals.com model has North Carolina at Cooper 54, Whatley 46 as of this week. Not the probability of the vote share, the probability of winning the seat. That makes NC the tightest marquee Senate race in the country, and one of a handful that will decide who controls the chamber in 2027.
Read the full forecast here: DatumSignals: NC Senate 2026
Why it’s this close
The model sees three forces pulling in different directions. North Carolina’s structural lean actually favors Democrats by about three points before anything else is considered. It’s an open seat, with Thom Tillis walking away rather than defending it, which makes everything more volatile. The national midterm environment is shifting toward Democrats. But the state’s own public mood is moving the other way, toward Republicans, and that’s what keeps Whatley in this race.
The polls tell the same story. Roy Cooper led by double…
